US retail sales are expected to post a gain of 0.5% in October for the headline vs 0.1% in September and 0.5% for ex-autos vs -0.1%. Forecast risk is upward, given continued firm consumer confidence measures. We saw a cycle-high gain of 2.2% in March ’10, and a expansion-low figure of -2.4% in September ’09, with a peak decline in the last recession of -3.7% in both October ’08 and November ’08. The US consumer remains fundamental to the continued growth of the US economy.
The US morning data release also includes the once highly significant “Philly Fed Manufacturing Index”. Although not as significant as it once was to GDP, with President Trump focused on manufacturing and number still carries some weight. The November Philly Fed is seen falling to 20.0 from 22.2 in October. Forecast risk is upward, boosted by tailwinds from tax reform. This compares to a cycle-high of 36.4 in March ’11, and an expansion-low of -19.6 in August ’11.
Other US data today includes the weekly initial jobless claims, trade prices, the NY Empire State data and later the weekly Oil inventories.
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Head Market Analyst
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