WASHINGTON — The U.S. Division of Agriculture, in its July 11 World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimates report, forecast the carryover of U.S. sugar on Oct. 1, 2019, (2018-19 ending shares) at 1,761,000 quick tons, uncooked worth, up 235,818 tons, or 15%, from its June forecast primarily based on greater tariff fee quota imports and better imports from Mexico.
The united statesD.A. forecast the 2018-19 ending stocks-to-use ratio at 14.3%, up sharply from 12.4% forecast in June. A bump in ending shares and within the S.-T.-U. ratio was anticipated after the usD.A. acted in June to extend the U.S. sugar provide by about 150,000 tons by a T.R.Q. reallocation and a rise in Mexico’s export restrict.
U.S. beet sugar manufacturing was forecast at 4,920,000 tons in 2018-19, unchanged from June, with cane sugar outturn forecast at 4,028,000 tons, down 1,000 tons on account of a like lower in Texas.
Imports had been forecast at 3,091,000 tons, up 216,138 tons, or 7.5%, from June primarily based on T.R.Q. imports at 1,604,000 tons, up 66,138 tons, different program imports at 400,000 tons, up 50,000 tons, and imports from Mexico at 997,000 tons, up 100,000 tons. Excessive-tier imports had been left unchanged from June at 90,000 tons.
Forecast home deliveries had been forecast at 12,250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from June primarily based on a like lower within the “different” class, forecast at 125,000 tons. Deliveries for meals had been unchanged at 12,125,000 tons (up 0.6% from 2017-18). Exports additionally had been unchanged at 35,000 tons.
U.S. sugar ending shares for 2019-20 had been forecast at 1,663,000 tons, up 135,000 tons, or 9%, from the June forecast however down 98,000 tons, or 6%, from 2018-19. The ending S.-T.-U. ratio was projected at 13.5%, up from 12.4% because the June projection.
U.S. sugar manufacturing in 2019-20 was forecast at 9,260,000 tons, up 121,080 tons from the June forecast and up 313,000 tons, or 3.5%, from 2018-19. Beet sugar manufacturing for 2019-20 (from the 2019 crop) was projected at 5,175,000 tons, up 21,000 tons from June, with cane sugar at 4,085,000 tons, up 100,000 tons on account of a like enhance in Louisiana’s manufacturing.
Complete imports in 2019-20 had been forecast at 2,957,000 tons, down 261,872 tons, or 8%, from the June forecast, as a 449,263-ton discount in imports from Mexico, forecast at 969,000 tons, greater than offset a 187,393-ton enhance in T.R.Q. imports, primarily based on the announcement of the specialty sugar T.R.Q. Complete T.R.Q. imports had been projected at 1,568,000 tons for 2019-20.
Complete provide in 2019-20 was forecast at 13,978,000 tons, up 95,027 tons from June however down 68,000 tons from 2018-19.
The united statesD.A. forecast home deliveries of sugar in 2019-20 at 12,280,000 tons, together with deliveries for meals at 12,175,000 tons, unchanged from June however up 0.4% from 2018-19, and “different” at 105,000 tons, down 40,000 tons from June. Exports had been unchanged at 35,000 tons.
The united statesD.A raised its Mexican sugar manufacturing forecasts for each this 12 months and subsequent 12 months. Manufacturing in 2018-19 was forecast at 6,425,000 tonnes, precise weight, up 25,000 tonnes from June, and 2019-20 manufacturing was projected at 6,248,000 tonnes, up 65,000 tonnes from June however down 177,000 tonnes from the present 12 months.