A yr in the past, there was some debate (e.g., S. Kopits) whether or not tariffs on US soybeans would have any influence on US soybean exports — that’s since soybeans had been extremely substitutable, US soybean exports can be redistributed w/o an influence on costs.
From Deutsche Financial institution at this time:
As of July, year-to-date cumulative US exports of soybeans had been down roughly 11.4
million metric tons in comparison with the identical interval final yr however soybean exports to
China had been down round 17.Four million metric tons.
DB Determine 2 says all of it.
Supply: Ryan, et al. “Commerce Replace: (Soy)bean counting,” Deutsche Financial institution, 13 August 2019.
Had soybeans been completely fungible, then US exports would’ve been fairly flat given world exports over the earlier 12 months (see web page 1, Oilseeds: World Commerce and Markets, August 2019).